Months ago, whispers regarding Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s aspirations for vital port access began circulating. These became more pronounced when, at an investor summit, PM Abiy underscored Ethiopia’s urgent need for a proprietary port. He pointed out the high costs of relying on neighboring countries’ ports. Sources suggest Ethiopia might consider everything from peaceful negotiations to military force.
There are unconfirmed reports that the Ethiopian government has initiated discussions with Eritrea, proposing a 30% stake in the illustrious Ethiopian Airlines in exchange for port access. Al Jazeera English lent weight to these rumors when it reported that the PM purportedly said, “Ethiopia will secure direct access to a port, either peacefully or, if necessary, by force.”
This seems contrary to past actions; five years ago, Ethiopia nearly used Eritrean ports when PM Abiy tried to bridge the chasm between the nations. Additionally, Eritrea was priming its ports for Ethiopian cargo; however, recent visits by Ethiopian officials to Kenya and Somaliland hint at a broader strategy.
The PM’s alleged “by any means necessary” assertion was the most attention-grabbing. Merera Gudina of Addis Ababa University cautioned that failed negotiations might lead to conflict, potentially destabilizing the region.
Eyasu Hailemichael, a Horn of Africa specialist, opines that while leaders might not openly advocate for war, the Ethiopian government’s Red Sea access might be supported by Western powers.
Furthermore, the strategic positioning of the Horn of Africa in the global geopolitical landscape adds another layer of complexity. The waterways, which include the Red Sea and the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait, serve as vital shipping routes for global commerce. Disruption in this region could reverberate far beyond local or regional interests, affecting global trade routes and energy supplies.
In the current international climate, characterized by shifting power dynamics and the resurgence of Cold War-style proxy contests, the Horn of Africa has become a hotbed for international interests. Regional stakeholders like Ethiopia, Eritrea, and Djibouti, find themselves not just negotiating their interests with each other, but also navigating the desires and ambitions of influential external players.
The idea of Ethiopia using force to secure a port raises alarm bells, especially since the global community recognizes the importance of maintaining peace and stability in such a pivotal region. International bodies, including the African Union and the United Nations, would likely intervene to prevent any escalation, given the ramifications it could have on international trade and peace.
Moreover, the economic impact of a conflict would be significant. Ethiopia, while emerging as one of the fastest-growing economies in Africa, would find its progress stymied by the consequences of war. The costs involved in military action, coupled with potential economic sanctions and decreased foreign direct investment, could derail Ethiopia’s growth trajectory.
The pursuit of port access is, without a doubt, crucial for Ethiopia’s continued economic expansion. However, the means of achieving this goal must be carefully considered. Diplomatic avenues, regional cooperation, and international mediation might offer solutions that are beneficial for all parties involved.
The rise of multilateral frameworks and regional cooperation initiatives in recent years could provide a platform for resolving such issues. Institutions such as the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) could play a pivotal role in mediating disputes and fostering collaborative efforts in the region.
Merera Gudina and Eyasu Hailemichael, both experts in the region’s geopolitics, agree that diplomatic efforts should be at the forefront. A peaceful resolution would not only be in the best interest of Ethiopia but also the entire Horn of Africa. As Eyasu puts it, “The complexities of the Horn require nuanced approaches, and the region cannot afford another conflict.”
The unfolding situation will surely draw the attention of global powers, each with its interests and stakes in the Horn. The outcome, whether peaceful or tumultuous, will undeniably have long-standing repercussions for the geopolitical landscape of the region and beyond.
In conclusion, while Ethiopia’s pursuit of port access underscores its ambitious economic growth goals, the way it navigates this challenge will significantly influence the future of the Horn of Africa. Mutual cooperation, regional integration, and diplomatic efforts seem to be the most viable and sustainable options, but only time will tell which path the nation ultimately takes.