A flooded retreat, a helicopter crash, and a power vacuum—Al-Shabaab’s advance sends shockwaves through the Horn of Africa. But Turkey may be the wildcard no one expected.
In a stunning setback for Somalia’s security, Al-Shabaab militants have captured the strategic town of Hawadley, just 50 kilometers north of Mogadishu. The takeover comes in the wake of an abrupt withdrawal by African Union troops, officially blamed on severe flooding—but many aren’t buying it.
Why it matters: Hawadley isn’t just another town. It controls a crucial bridge that connects Mogadishu to central Somalia. For years, Burundian peacekeepers held the line here. Now, that line is broken. And the road to Mogadishu may be wide open.
The African Union Support and Stabilization Mission in Somalia (AUSSOM) cited flooding for the withdrawal, yet local intelligence sources whisper of a darker truth: a looming Al-Shabaab offensive may have spooked commanders into pulling out to avoid mass casualties.
Making matters worse, a helicopter involved in the evacuation crashed near the town. The official line? A mechanical failure. Al-Shabaab’s version? They shot it down. Whether propaganda or fact, the narrative plays into their hands—and spreads fear like wildfire.
The tactical value of Hawadley
Hawadley straddles a key river crossing. Its loss not only endangers nearby towns like Bal’ad and Jowhar—the capital of Hirshabelle state—but it also potentially exposes Mogadishu itself to infiltration by insurgents. And this isn’t theoretical. Al-Shabaab has a long record of moving heavy weaponry, VBIEDs (vehicle-borne IEDs), and fighters with terrifying speed once they gain logistical access.
The fall of Hawadley risks reversing years of slow, painful gains made by Somali and AU forces in reclaiming territory.
Enter Turkey: drones, choppers, and boots on the ground
But just as international forces scale back, Turkey is surging forward.
In a decisive move, Ankara delivered three T129 Atak helicopters to Somalia this week, along with two utility helicopters for the Somali Navy. These are no toys—they’re state-of-the-art attack platforms, the same models used by Turkish forces against Kurdish insurgents and ISIS in Iraq and Syria.
What’s more, Ankara has trained Somali pilots for over a year in preparation for this moment. And Turkish military transport planes—six A400Ms and Qatari C-17As—have been busy flying into Mogadishu, suggesting that Turkey is not just sending weapons, but also infrastructure and strategic capacity.
Why is Turkey doing this?
Behind the weapons is a larger strategy. President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan called Somalia’s leader on Saturday to affirm his support. Officially, Turkey says it wants to help Somalia develop “through democracy.” Unofficially? Analysts say Turkey is determined to prevent a power vacuum—and fill the one the U.S. is now leaving behind.
It’s not just about terrorism. Last year, Turkey signed a naval defense agreement with Somalia. Ankara is now building Somalia’s navy from the ground up. It also sent Bayraktar TB2 and Akinci drones, the latter capable of long-endurance, high-altitude missions—perfect for surveillance and surgical strikes against mobile Al-Shabaab columns.
A bigger game: oil, elections, and influence
The military buildup is only one side of the coin. Turkey also has its eye on Somalia’s untapped offshore energy. In 2024, Ankara signed an exploration and drilling deal. Technical teams and exploration vessels have been spotted near the Somali coast. While data hasn’t been released, Erdoğan hinted that “good news” is coming. Turkish insiders speculate that this “news” may involve sizable hydrocarbon finds.
Combine that with Somalia’s upcoming 2026 elections, which for the first time are supposed to be held via direct popular vote rather than tribal elders—and Turkey’s deepening involvement looks more like a bid for regional leadership.
Where is the African Union? And the US?
As Turkey deepens its footprint, the African Union’s credibility is under strain. The loss of Hawadley highlights the fragility of AU operations—even as Kenya protests recent funding cuts for AUSSOM. Nairobi is furious, fearing that instability will spill across the border.
The U.S., meanwhile, has cut funding to Somalia’s elite Danab unit, a key force in anti-terror ops. Though Washington has doubled its airstrikes on ISIS affiliates, its commitment to Somalia’s long-term security is in question.
That void is where Turkey steps in. Not just with helicopters—but with a vision.
What happens now?
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Hawadley is lost. Al-Shabaab now holds a direct route toward Mogadishu.
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Jowhar is exposed. The state capital may be next in line for insurgent pressure.
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Turkey is committed. It has the troops, the drones, the ships—and possibly the oil rights.
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AU is rattled. Some officials privately question whether AUSSOM is even viable without full international backing.
Can Somalia hold?
The answer may depend less on African unity or Western funding—and more on how far Ankara is willing to go.