It began with a statistic that sounded almost impossible, a president winning 98 percent of the vote.
In Tanzania, that number has set the country on fire. What should have been a celebration of democracy turned instead into chaos: protests in Dar es Salaam, gunfire in Mwanza, and hundreds reported dead. Opposition leaders are in jail, the internet is cut, and even border towns near Kenya have seen unrest spill over.
As international observers called the election a “fraud unfolding for months,” the government claimed calm had been restored. But the reality on the ground tells another story, one of fear, silence, and curfews.
For East Africa, this is not just Tanzania’s problem. It is a warning, of how easily democratic systems can collapse into managed control, and how quickly one country’s turmoil can unsettle its neighbours.
A country on edge
Polling day, meant to show national unity, turned into a scene of violence. In Dar es Salaam, burning tyres blocked major roads as police fired tear gas into crowds shouting “We want our vote back.” Eyewitnesses told local reporters they saw “hundreds of people running, then the sound of gunfire.”
The electoral commission announced President Samia Suluhu Hassan had won an overwhelming victory with 97.66 percent of the vote. But by then, the streets had already erupted.
Opposition leader Tundu Lissu, jailed on treason charges he denies, never appeared on the ballot. Another challenger, Luhaga Mpina of ACT-Wazalendo, was disqualified. Sixteen small parties, most without real national support, filled the paper to create an illusion of pluralism.
Across the country, anger turned to confrontation. In Mwanza, clashes left hospitals overflowing with injured civilians. In Dodoma and Zanzibar, protesters tore down government posters and blocked traffic. The police and army moved swiftly, and the government imposed curfews.
Death toll uncertain, silence enforced
The true number of victims remains unclear. Opposition figures say up to 700 people have been killed; diplomatic sources speak of at least 500 confirmed deaths. The UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres said he was “deeply concerned,” urging all sides to “prevent further escalation.”
Amnesty International warned that the nationwide internet shutdown, one of the most extensive in East Africa’s history, makes it almost impossible to verify the scale of violence. Civil servants were ordered to work from home, and hospitals in Dar es Salaam reported an influx of wounded patients through the night.
Videos circulating before the blackout showed civilians beaten, police stations set on fire, and protesters carrying the bodies of those shot. By Friday morning, Zello, a walkie-talkie app, became the only tool many could use to coordinate.
In official statements, the government insisted the situation was under control. President Samia praised the “patriotic” work of the security forces, accusing demonstrators of being manipulated by “bad characters who wish ill for this country.”
A coronation, not a contest
President Samia Suluhu Hassan, now 65, was once praised for softening the hard edges of her predecessor John Magufuli’s rule. But critics say her government has returned to the same authoritarian instincts.
Since 2021, rights groups have documented enforced disappearances, torture, and abductions of opposition figures. International monitors were not allowed to observe the 2025 election freely.
The ruling party Chama Cha Mapinduzi (CCM), in power since independence, extended its dominance, claiming victory in almost every constituency on the mainland and 80 percent in Zanzibar. The European Parliament called the election “neither credible nor democratic,” while the United Kingdom, Canada, and Norway expressed alarm over “credible reports of a large number of fatalities.”
Samia, celebrating her victory, called the vote “free and democratic.” Her opponents called it “a national humiliation.”
Cross-border shockwaves
The violence did not stop at Tanzania’s borders. Witnesses say hundreds of protesters crossed into Kenya at the Namanga border town, lighting bonfires and blocking roads. Kenyan police confirmed that two people died while fleeing clashes with Tanzanian security forces.
Nairobi immediately issued warnings to its citizens not to join protests near the frontier. But along East Africa’s highways, the message spread: if a 98% election result can be declared legitimate in one country, could it happen elsewhere?
Kenya’s own political system, though more pluralistic, remains fragile, with memories of electoral violence still vivid. Analysts now warn that authoritarian habits may be contagious. “When the region stops holding fair elections, it doesn’t stop at the border,” one East African political scientist told Horn Daily. “It spreads through imitation.”
The events have also rattled regional bodies. The East African Community (EAC), headquartered in Arusha, is under pressure to issue a statement. But so far, silence dominates.
Internet darkness and the death of accountability
The internet shutdown has become a weapon of modern governance. In Tanzania, it worked, for now. By cutting off social media, the authorities reduced the visibility of protests and delayed international outrage.
Yet the blackout also silenced legitimate voices: human rights groups, journalists, and citizens trying to verify facts. It left entire cities in an information vacuum. Amnesty International warned that “the absence of information is itself a form of violence,” as families struggle to locate missing relatives.
Digital experts in Kenya and Uganda expressed concern that this tactic could be copied. Uganda, which has used similar shutdowns during elections, may see Tanzania’s blackout as proof that it works.
International reaction: cautious, but critical
Global reactions have been measured but serious. The UN, EU, UK, and Canada condemned the killings and called for investigations. The African Union has yet to issue a strong statement.
The US Embassy in Dar es Salaam noted that “major routes to the airport remain closed” and urged American citizens to stay indoors.
Diplomatic sources told Horn Daily that regional envoys are privately pressing President Samia to restore communications and release opposition leaders. “Tanzania’s stability matters for the entire region,” one diplomat said. “If its people lose faith in elections, we may see the same unrest ripple into other countries.”
Zanzibar’s separate storm
In Zanzibar, which holds semi-autonomous elections, the CCM’s Hussein Mwinyi won with nearly 80 percent of the vote. Opposition groups on the islands called the result “massive fraud.”
Zanzibar has a long history of contested elections and political tension between the mainland and the islands. If repression continues there, the fragile unity of the Tanzanian Union could face renewed strain.
Why this matters for East Africa’s democracy
Tanzania’s turmoil carries lessons that go far beyond its borders, and not through moral preaching, but through example.
- When elections produce near-total victories, they erode trust in the democratic process.
- When opposition leaders are jailed, other governments may feel emboldened to do the same.
- When internet blackouts silence dissent, truth itself becomes a casualty.
East Africa’s history shows how quickly democratic gains can unravel. In Ethiopia, Uganda, and Kenya, fragile political balances depend on citizens believing that votes matter. The Tanzanian model, managed elections, total victory, and forceful control, could tempt those in power elsewhere.
The fear whispered from Nairobi to Kampala is simple: what if this becomes the new normal?
The human cost
Amid politics, the human stories are easy to miss. In Dar es Salaam’s Muhimbili Hospital, volunteers carried wounded men and women through corridors filled with tear gas residue. In Mwanza, families searched morgues for missing sons. In Dodoma, civil servants locked themselves inside offices as gunfire echoed.
A nurse who spoke anonymously said, “We haven’t slept for three nights. The patients just keep coming.”
For Tanzanians, the line between peace and panic has blurred. For their neighbours, the line between watching and acting may soon follow.
The uncertain road ahead
As of early November, Tanzania remains tense but quiet, a silence enforced by soldiers on street corners and a digital blackout across the nation. President Samia has urged citizens to “return to work and unity,” while opposition leaders remain in detention.
Diplomatic observers expect calm on the surface, but instability beneath. The economy, dependent on tourism and regional trade, has already suffered. Investors are watching closely, wary of a government seen as unpredictable and repressive.
East Africa’s diplomats, meanwhile, are left with a dilemma: how to respond to one member’s democratic collapse without breaking the fragile trust that holds the region together.
A region at a crossroads
For now, Tanzania’s 98% victory stands, but so does the unease it created. The scenes of smoke rising over Dar es Salaam, the quiet hospitals of Mwanza, the digital silence across the country, all point to a democracy wounded in plain sight.
Whether Tanzania can recover depends on more than its government. It depends on whether its neighbours, partners, and citizens across East Africa choose to see this as an isolated event, or as a warning.
If one country can claim 98% and call it democracy, what stops the next from trying?